The state of play in the presidential race

Harris has given Democrats a good chance of retaining the presidency. That didn't seem possible three months ago.

Disgruntlement has settled in on partisan Democrats and Never Trump Republicans and independents. They profess not to understand why Kamala Harris hasn’t put Donald Trump away by this point in the campaign, and are full of things that she has done wrong or not done right.

In large measure, this is a huge overreaction to teeny changes within the margin of error in polls. This supposedly shows that Harris’s campaign is stalling out, or even that Trump is gaining momentum. In reality, polls aren’t accurate to that level of precision, even when done to their best. At this point, all the polls are telling us is that the race is excruciatingly tight, nationally and in the battleground states.

Also in large measure, the disgruntlement reflects a remarkable case of political amnesia. What is surprising isn’t that Harris hasn’t put Trump away by this point. What is surprising, and remarkable, is that she is competitive and has a solid shot of winning.

Let’s turn the clock back to when Joe Biden dropped out of the race, which was just a little over three months ago. The presidential prospects for Democrats were bleak. 

That was only in part because of the perception among a critical mass of the electorate that Biden was too enfeebled for the job. There was also a critical mass of the electorate who were dissatisfied with the performance of the Biden administration. The former went away when Biden stepped aside. The latter remains a powerful force in this election.

At the time, Harris’s public standing wasn’t very good. She was hardly considered a formidable political figure. 

Yet, in just over three months, she consolidated Democratic support behind her candidacy, crossed the presidential credibility threshold in the debate with Trump, raised huge sums of money, and has a solid chance of winning. That’s a stunning political accomplishment in a very short period of time. 

Arizona offers an illustrative case study. In 2012, the GOP registration advantage over Democrats was 5.4 percentage points. Mitt Romney won the state by 9 percentage points. In 2020, when Biden won the state by an eyelash, Democrats had reduced the registration disadvantage to 3 percentage points.

In 2024, the GOP advantage has swelled to 6.8 percentage points. Yet polls have the race neck-and-neck. That’s stunning. In 2024, the vice president during a disappointing Biden administration should have zero shot at overcoming a nearly 7 percentage point disadvantage in registration. Yet Harris has a shot.

The misplaced disgruntlement has different origins. Partisan Democrats think the Biden administration’s performance should be popular and fault lousy messaging for it not being a wave Harris can ride to the presidency. Never Trump Republicans and independents believe that Trump’s attempted coup and the odious way he practices politics should be disqualifying, and would be if properly conveyed. What both miss is how powerful a political force dissatisfaction with the Biden administration remains.

There was not a huge buy-in by the broader electorate for the Biden administration’s big-spending industrial policy. Domestically, inflation is the overriding economic concern, and the Biden administration’s big-spending programs are a significant contributing factor. 

This was the first outbreak of runaway inflation in four decades. And inflation has not been tamed. It seems stuck at around a 2.5% rate. That’s still enough to cause people to feel as though their standard of living is being eroded, even if wage increases are now running slightly ahead of the inflation rate. 

The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle has become emblematic of the Biden administration’s foreign policy management. There is a sense, again among a critical mass of the electorate, that the world is becoming more dangerous for the United States and the Biden administration doesn’t know what to do about it. 

One of the calls from the disgruntled is for Harris to be more specific about what she would try to do as president. Harris is trying to cobble together a coalition spanning Bernie Sanders progressives to Reagan conservatives who can’t stomach Trump. They want to hear a different and contradictory set of specifics from Harris.

The partisan Democrats want to hear her proclaim the virtues of the Biden administration’s policies and promise more of the same. The Never Trump Republicans and independents want her to hint at an understanding that there was overreach in the Biden administration and indicate that she would chart a more centrist course. As a matter of political calculation, a degree of ambiguity is necessary to hold that coalition together through the election.

It also may very well be the case that Harris isn’t entirely certain how she would govern as president. It’s safe to assume that she shares the Democratic general commitment to moving the political economy of the United States more toward that of a European-style social democracy. But there are various speeds at which a president can try to move in that direction, and different intensities of opposition depending on the speed. 

Until three months ago, Harris thought she was running for vice president. Of necessity, her exclusive focus since has been on constructing an Electoral College majority and she has put one within reach. It is unsurprising that a detailed policy agenda is lagging behind. And what she ultimately decides to take on will be shaped and constrained by what kind of a Congress the electorate bequeaths her. 

I share the view of Never Trump Republicans and independents that his attempted coup and the odious way he practices politics should be disqualifying. That, with Trump on the ballot, policy considerations should be secondary. 

There is a consequential segment of the center-right electorate who see the election this way. Given the dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, a traditional Republican candidate would be running away with a race against that administration’s vice president. Trump creates his own headwinds. 

However, there is a limit to the number of center-right voters willing to put aside substantial policy objections to what the Biden administration has done and what a Harris administration is likely to attempt. Never Trump Republicans and independents tend to discount how much center-right voters are being asked to swallow to vote for Harris. 

There are powerful competing forces at work in this election. To the extent it is a referendum on the Biden administration, Trump wins. To the extent it is a referendum on a second term for Trump, Harris wins. And, of course, it is both referendums being held at the same time.

In just three months, Harris has put the Democratic nominee back into the ballgame. The Democrats have put in place a superior ground game for the end game. 

Win or lose, Harris has played the politics she was handed remarkably well. Given the dissatisfaction with the administration she has served as vice president among a critical mass of voters, there wasn’t a magical formula to sew up the election before the votes are cast. Ultimately, the disgruntlement is a product of unrealistic expectations.

Reach Robb at robtrobb@gmail.com.