The Political Notebook 8.19.22
Bad general election bets: Lake and Masters on boosting MAGA turnout; Democrats on abortion.
What was the DeSantis rally supposed to accomplish?
The Arizona rally featuring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis didn’t seem to advance any political interest of any of the principal participants, which included Kari Lake, the GOP nominee for governor, and Blake Masters, its U.S. Senate aspirant.
For someone such as DeSantis wanting to increase their national profile and influence, touring the country in support of your party’s candidates is a customary endeavor. However, these two Arizona candidates – Lake and Masters – have been running almost exclusively on the Trump Big Lie about the 2020 election.
DeSantis has a potential path before him of being a champion of many of the causes driving Trumpism without falling fully into the Trump 2020 conspiracy vat. In a presidential bid, that might make him acceptable to a broader range of the electorate, both in a primary and in a general election. Embracing two candidates – Lake and Masters – known principally for being deep vat dwellers isn’t in keeping with treading that potential path.
Lake and Masters have the MAGA vote locked up. Their primary victories demonstrated that.
If they want to expand their appeal beyond the MAGA base, DeSantis isn’t the guy to feature to kick off the general election bid. He’s regarded as a resident of MAGA land, viewed with suspicion by swing voters.
The only way the DeSantis rally makes sense for Lake and Masters is if their strategy is to win the general election by boosting MAGA turnout. It was a raucous rally and DeSantis is a rising star in that crowd.
It’s always good to boost base turnout. But I don’t see the math working to make that the principal general election objective.
In 2018, the last off-presidential election, there were roughly 225,000 people who voted for Republican Doug Ducey for governor and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate. And that was before the attempted Trump coup and the Jan. 6 storming of the capitol. The ranks of the Ducey-Sinema voters are likely to be even larger this cycle.
This cycle, they are probably leaning Republican, given inflation and a general dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. But swallowing coup supporters such as Lake and Masters is a big ask.
I don’t know whether there is anything Lake and Masters can do to assuage concerns about them among the Ducey-Sinema voters and make themselves less hard of a swallow. But betting on turning out enough additional MAGA voters to overcome them seems a real longshot.
Mayes undermines her case against Hamadeh
Given the all-Trump GOP ticket for state offices, I think Democrats are making a mistake by running too much on the abortion issue in the general election.
Again focusing on the Ducey-Sinema voters who I think now control the outcome of general elections in Arizona, they are undoubtedly a mix of pro-choice, pro-life, and in-betweeners.
Up and down the ballot for state officers, the winning pitch for Democrats to these voters would seem to be competence, commonsense governance, and respect for the rule of law and democratic norms. In these times and for those voters, that theme would have universal and powerful appeal.
The abortion issue might boost Democratic turnout and bring over some swing voters. But it doesn’t have the same universal appeal.
The attorney general race offers the best illustration. The Republican candidate, Abraham Hamadeh, is wholly unqualified to be the state’s chief legal officer and run a large state agency. He’s just six years out of law school with just a few years of experience as a low-level prosecutor. And he has inappropriately vowed political prosecutions over the 2020 election.
In contrast, the Democratic candidate, Kris Mayes, has a wealth of political and legal experience, having served as a corporation commissioner and a law professor.
On the issues of competence and commonsense governance, Mayes outshines Hamadeh by megawatts. But she seems to be making abortion her main general election issue.
Mayes asserts that the Arizona Constitution’s privacy provision guarantees the right to an abortion in the state. That’s a dubious proposition and one highly unlikely to prevail.
Unlike the federal Constitution, Arizona’s Constitution does have an explicit privacy right. But claiming that it encompasses the right to an abortion flunks the originalism test. Arizona had a law prohibiting abortion both before and after this constitutional provision was enacted. Clearly the framers of the privacy provision didn’t regard it as establishing a right to abortion. And the state Supreme Court is now stacked with originalists.
Mayes also says she won’t enforce any anti-abortion laws that might be on the books. That’s also showing disrespect for the rule of law and democratic norms. In our system, laws are made by the Legislature and the people via referendum and initiative. The AG doesn’t have a veto over the outcome of these processes.
So, Mayes isn’t putting the general election spotlight on where she clearly has greater appeal to Ducey-Sinema voters. And she’s undermining her case against Hamadeh by vowing to also use her office to pursue a political agenda.
Reach Robb at robtrobb@gmail.com.