Dumb GOP move on school funding

The threat to tie a spending cap fix to private school vouchers gives Democratic legislative candidates a potent issue.

After failing to pass a state budget any other way, GOP legislators acquiesced in an increase in funding for K-12 education in the range of what voters thought they were approving with the passage of Proposition 208.

But there’s a catch. The additional funding, and a hunk of funding from the basic state aid formula, can’t be spent under the state Constitution’s aggregate expenditure limit for K-12 spending.

The constitutional provision empowers the Legislature to approve a one-year reprieve from the limit. And it can refer to voters an ongoing boost, as has happened in the past.

The Legislature adjourned without doing either. The estimate of approved funding that can’t be spent under the limit is a staggering $1.5 billion, or roughly $2,000 a pupil.

At the time of adjournment, rumor had it that an agreement had been reached for Gov. Doug Ducey to call a special session for an AEL fix. 

That hasn’t happened. And now some GOP lawmakers are connecting an AEL fix with the petition drive to refer the universal private school voucher bill that also passed to the voters. If the voucher bill is referred, goes the threat, no AEL fix.

Substantively, this is irresponsible. Politically, it is idiotic. 

The school year is commencing. If schools start spending the $1.5 billion over the AEL, they might have to in essence repay it in the last few months of the fiscal year. 

Schools shouldn’t be put in this spot. It will also distort the spending decisions they make if they proceed to spend at least some of the funding over the AEL on the assumption that eventually the Legislature will provide at least the one-year reprieve. For example, increases in teacher base salaries will be more difficult to approve if the funding for them isn’t ironclad. Yet that’s what the priority for increased funding should be.

Politically, it’s hard to imagine a dumber move. 

The threat to withhold an AEL fix won’t deter the referendum drive. Voucher opponents are deeply ideologically driven. Moreover, there is a strong overlap with Democratic Party activism. Republicans demonstrating such a lack of commitment to funding the public schools would be a gift to them in their larger mission of turning the state blue.

Universal vouchers, which I support, will be a tough sell to voters if the referral drive is successful. There is zero public support for holding $1.5 billion in funding for public schools hostage to universal vouchers to attend private schools. 

If there is not a quick special session to approve an AEL fix, which is the only responsible course of action, Democratic legislative candidates will have a potent general election issue. Do Republican candidates support an AEL fix? If so, why hasn’t it happened? After all, Republicans control the governorship and the Legislature. Do Republican candidates support holding public school funding hostage to universal private school vouchers? 

According to local political prognosticators, Democrats haven’t fielded enough candidates in potentially competitive districts to take over the state House this general election. And if this remains a strongly Republican-leaning election cycle, taking over the Senate is also likely out of reach.

This scenario is far-fetched but not impossible. If the Legislature remained in GOP control after the November election, and if the voucher bill was referred, and if GOP lawmakers refused to enact an AEL fix in retaliation, selected recalls could take place in districts where Democrats are competitive but didn’t prevail in November. In that circumstance, this would be a potent enough issue to give Democrats a real shot at taking over both chambers of the Legislature.

In all likelihood, the threat to not fix the AEL if the universal voucher bill is referred is an empty one. The political consequences are just too devastating to follow through on it.

But the threat having been made, a quick special session to enact an AEL fix becomes even more important and compelling. 

It is not fair to schools to leave the issue hanging. And Republican legislative candidates now hold political dynamite with a lit fuse.

Reach Robb at robtrobb@gmail.com.