Don't compete with China over Africa

Harris' diplomatic mission illustrates how and why the U.S. shouldn't fully turn geopolitical competition with China into a new Cold War.

Vice President Kamala Harris has been on a diplomatic mission to Africa, doling out grants along her way.

This is widely perceived as an attempt by the Biden administration to counterbalance China’s growing influence on the continent, and that is undoubtedly substantially the case. As such it offers a useful illustration of how and why the United States shouldn’t fully turn the geopolitical competition with China into a new Cold War, in which the U.S. vied with the Soviet Union for influence throughout the globe. 

Africa has been a central focus of Xi’s belt and road initiative, in which China lends other countries money for infrastructure projects, which mostly get constructed by Chinese firms. 

It hasn’t turned out very well. Some of the construction has been shoddy and the African countries haven’t been able to service the loans. China, which is loath to write off debt, has forgiven a hunk of it.  

Nevertheless, China has been active in the region in a way that the United States has not. The U.S. needs to catch up, goes the argument. 

A prosperous and secure Africa would be a benefit to the United States and the entire world. However, an impoverished Africa is of humanitarian concern to the United States, but not really a threat to us. An unsecure Africa can be a threat, but only in rare circumstances an actionable one. Greater China influence in an impoverished and unsecure Africa is a minor factor in our geopolitical competition with it. 

What creates prosperity and civil order is now well-known: market economics, individual liberty, rule of law, and democratic governance. These are in short supply in Africa. Freedom House classifies countries into three categories based generally on those criteria: free, partly free, and not free. Only a handful of African countries are deemed free. Just a handful more are rated partly free. Most of them are designated as not free.

Africa has a population of 1.4 billion, an enormous potential market. If the building blocks for prosperity and civil order were in place, private investment would flow into the continent, including from the U.S. It wouldn’t require government cajoling, leverage, or guarantees. 

U.S. aid can’t compensate for the lack of these building blocks nor induce their adoption. It has to come from internal developments and assent. 

According to reporting by The Dispatch, Harris has made over $1 billion of funding announcements on her trip. As underperforming as African economies are, their collective GDP is nearly $9 trillion. Neither the United States nor China is ever going to commit enough to meaningfully change the economic trajectory of Africa.

Moreover, U.S. politics being what they are, the aid we do provide will be driven as much, or more, by domestic politics than a hardheaded assessment of what would do the most to move Africa forward. Much of the assistance Harris announced was earmarked for women entrepreneurship. Some of it was to support local musicians.  

The Dispatch quoted one policy expert supporting increased aid initiatives as saying: “People don’t eat democracy and good governance. People need jobs. People need schools. People need hope as they contemplate the future.” But the way people get a steady supply of food, jobs, schools, and hope is through democracy, good governance, and a sound political economy. Anything else is just helping people tread water, at best. Treading water is better than drowning, but it’s not getting to shore. 

The United States is never going to outbid China in renting the loyalty of political leaders in Africa. We should neither try nor fret excessively about it. And we shouldn’t fall into the game of African political leaders trying to play the China card against us in an attempt to wrest concessions or more aid. We should be prepared to offer humanitarian and limited security assistance, and not expect much in return.

To have prosperity and civil order, the political leaders and people of Africa have to chart their own course to putting in place the political economy that produces them. 

The Chinese model of heavy-handed state capitalism has appeal for the region’s autocrats and aspiring autocrats. But the American model of democratic capitalism produces a GDP per person more than three times that of China’s. 

The United States should hold out a welcoming hand for those African countries wanting to move in our direction, including access to our markets. But we shouldn’t worry much if they don’t take it.

Reach Robb at robtrobb@gmail.com.