Dems should trade Biden for Whitmer

An enfeebled Biden may be too much to ask Never Trumpers to swallow.

As a Never Trumper, I have a personal interest, in addition to the usual academic one, in how Democrats manage presidential electoral politics this cycle.

I believe that Donald Trump attempted a coup, plotting to stay in office despite losing the 2020 election. In a healthy democratic polity, this would result in almost universal ostracization, rendering him a modern-day Aaron Burr. 

That Trump so quickly regained such thorough dominance of the Republican Party is a deeply troubling sign, particularly about the prevailing mores of the GOP. If Trump suffers no political penalty for his attempted coup, and in fact regains the highest office in the land a scant four years after the attempt, it would meaningfully erode democratic norms in the country.

Democracy is a fragile governing modality, but it is the only one compatible with a self-governing and free society. This argues for a tactical vote for whomever has the best shot at keeping Trump from returning to the White House, irrespective of policy differences.

At least that’s the way I see it most days. For a conservative Never Trumper, Joe Biden and the Democrats require swallowing policy differences that lead to intense indigestion.

Democrats won’t put it this way, but they are committed to transforming the American political economy into a European-style social democracy, with a broader and more generous social welfare structure and greater governmental involvement in and direction of the economy.

Many on the right overreact to this. This isn’t socialism. Europe still has mostly market economies. European social democracies produce a decent standard of living. 

However, not as high of one as America’s democratic capitalism. The greater dynamism of the American political economy produces significantly greater opportunity, particularly for young adults early in their working careers. Simply put, our system is better, particularly in crafting pathways to the future.

The Democratic Party is pretty united in favor of this transformation. That would be the platform irrespective of who the presidential nominee might be. That was the direction in which Biden attempted to lead the country. It is the direction in which any replacement for Biden would also attempt to lead.

I don’t think Biden any longer has a realistic chance of defeating Trump and preventing the meaningful erosion in democratic norms his victory would represent. A plurality of voters don’t think Biden has done a very good job as president. And there is no recovery from the enfeebled performance in the debate. Roughly 80% of voters don’t think Biden is capable of performing the duties of the office in a second term. It doesn’t matter how many good, public days Biden has between now and Election Day. People know he has debate-level bad days.

So, a plurality of voters don’t think Biden has done a good job and a thundering majority of voters don’t think he’s up to handling the job for another four years. Sad to say, but Trump has not been rendered enough of a pariah to enough of the electorate for Biden to overcome these hardened political realities. 

And for Never Trumpers, the ask has just gotten much bigger. Not only do we have to swallow indigestible policy differences. We are now asked to cast a tactical vote for a candidate we doubt is up to doing the job. Can we in good conscience vote for someone we believe is too enfeebled to effectively discharge the daunting and taxing duties of being president? Even if the alternative is Donald Trump?

Democrats would serve the country, and the moment, by having an open convention to select another nominee for president. An open convention would have at least a patina of democratic legitimacy. There are around 4,500 delegates from every state in the country. They can fairly be regarded as representing the mainstream of Democratic political sentiment. 

It wasn’t until into the 1980s that presidential nominees were chosen almost exclusively through primary elections, rather than at least partially through the deliberations of delegates. Democrats could regard it as a retro convention.

I think any candidate other than Biden would still have a chance against Trump. But some would have a better chance than others.

Kamala Harris would eliminate one of Biden’s insurmountable obstacles, the consensus belief that age has rendered him unfit for the office. But not the other, the plurality view that Biden hasn’t done a very good job. She is inseparably part of that. She can’t offer the country a fresh start.

There’s a deep desire within the country for a fresh start and new leadership. There’s a palpable hunger for it. Of the potential Biden alternatives, I think Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has the best shot at capturing and riding it. 

Michigan is a swing state. During Whitmer’s first term, Republicans controlled both chambers of the legislature. There were the expected political spitballs fired back and forth, but things got done. She has experience and success working in divided government, which the next president may be facing. That would be somewhat reassuring to centrist and right-leaning Never Trumpers.

The Michigan GOP was taken over by MAGA forces, in much the same way as the Arizona GOP has been. In 2022, Whitmer won reelection by a comfortable 11 percentage points and Democrats took over both legislative chambers. So, she has demonstrated the ability to take on and defeat MAGAism.

Identity politics dominate the Democratic Party. But the prospect of electing the first woman president with Whitmer would take some of the sting away from skipping over Harris, who checks multiple identity politics boxes.

Whitmer shares the Democratic mission of transforming the American political economy into a European-style social democracy. On policy, there doesn’t appear to be significant space between her and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, another Biden alternative candidate. But Newsom governs in a one-party state. For swing voters, Whitmer has a track record of working in a bipartisan environment and fashion that Newsom lacks. She surely would bring Michigan, a swing state, into the Democratic column. Newsom comes from a safe Democratic state and a governor from sharply progressive California will have a tough time making the case in any of the swing states. 

Now, Whitmer has said that, even if Biden drops out, she isn’t interested in attempting to be the replacement nominee. But until Biden drops out, Democrats have to proceed cautiously in public in case he remains the nominee. That’s particularly incumbent on Whitmer, since she is co-chair of his campaign. 

I think a short campaign, even one short on cash, would actually benefit someone such as Whitmer. The appeal of someone offering a fresh face and start won’t have as much time to become stale and threadbare. 

And a fresh face and start would be a bit easier for some of us to swallow.

Reach Robb at robtrobb@gmail.com.