Carney's quest
What sort of twisted U.S. foreign policy turns Canada into the leader of a new non-aligned movement?
It took a lot of work for Donald Trump to wreck what is arguably the most important relationship of the United States with another country, that with Canada.
The United States shares the world’s longest border with Canada. That border has long been peaceful and permeable for both people and goods. Canada is a prosperous democracy. Before Trump, there was a high degree of harmonious economic integration between our countries.
Contrary to Trump, this integration was mutually beneficial. There was a robust flow of goods back and forth across the border. The United States had a trade deficit with Canada of around $60 billion in goods. But that was considerably less than 10% of total trade. And it lacks important context.
Nearly a third of U.S. imports from Canada are energy related, significantly crude oil. The Canadian energy sector complements rather than competes with that of the U.S. U.S. producers aren’t in a position to replace what we import from Canada, due to both geography and oil grades.
Exclude energy imports and the United States, pre-Trump, actually had a trade surplus with Canada in goods. We also had a large trade surplus in services.
Canada is faulted for low spending on defense, but this also lacks context. Canada could easily be a pacifist country. Until Trump, it had no enemies. In an apocalyptic war, missiles would fly over its territory. But the destination would be the United States, not Canada.
Canada, however, decided to join mutual defense pacts with fellow democracies. By serving as an early detection site through NORAD, it made its territory a target in an apocalyptic war when it otherwise wouldn’t be. It has made investments in Arctic defense. And it is a member of NATO.
Before Trump, the relationship between our two countries was placid and productive. Our biggest complaint about Canada was that it didn’t buy enough of our milk. Canada’s biggest beef with the United States was that we didn’t buy enough of its lumber. Then along came Trump II, with his tariff threats and unseemly disrespect for Canada’s sovereignty.
Whether Trump is being semi-serious or just trolling about Canada becoming the 51st state almost doesn’t matter in terms of the disruption it causes in the relationship. And from a MAGA standpoint, it’s a stupid troll. Canada becoming the 51st state would be the end of MAGA Republicanism as a national political force in the United States.
Canada would be the largest state in the Union, edging out California. In addition to two senators, it would be entitled to around 50 members of the House. The political center in Canada is notably to the left of the center in the United States. If Canadians wanted to see Trump and other MAGA politicians comically backpedal, they could pretend to be favorably disposed to Trump’s invitation.
Trump’s taunts and tariffs decided the last Canadian election. Mark Carney, a man of international stature, was elected prime minister, principally in the belief that he had the standing and nous to best navigate the Trump typhoon. Domestic Canadian issues became secondary.
Carney recently delivered a speech to Davos that received wide attention. In it, Carney declared that the international rules-based order, in terms of security and economics, has been irremediably ruptured. The big countries were engaged in raw great power politics. Middle powers, such as Canada, had to ban together to escape economic coercion and bully-boy diplomacy.
Carney wasn’t explicit about it, but it was clear that the rupture, in his mind, was caused by the United States under Trump. After all, the other two great powers – China and Russia – were already seeking to undermine the U.S.-led international rules-based order. The change has been Trump’s abandonment of it.
I think it is premature to declare the rupture irremediable. Trump’s bully-boy foreign policy is massively unpopular in the United States. This won’t be a first-tier issue in the midterms. But it will be a second-tier one. And if there is some consequential blowback from Trump’s reckless threats and use of military action without congressional authorization, it could become a first-tier issue.
However, I do believe it is prudent for other democracies to proceed as if the rupture is permanent. After all, the American people have elected Trump president not once, but twice.
Simply put, the United States is not currently a reliable or trustworthy ally. Not for Canada, not for European democracies, not for the democratic countries in the Indo-Pacific.
The path to becoming less vulnerable to great power economic coercion, from the United States or China, is not clear nor easy. In his speech, Carney said first priority should be given to improving domestic economic performance. That’s particularly true for European democracies.
Carney is rapidly seeking to diversify the destinations of Canadian exports, signing several new trade agreements. There’s a big economic world outside of the United States and China, but accessing and integrating it is difficult and daunting. Bilateral trade agreements are a patchwork move in that direction.
Developing security capabilities independent of the United States is easier to conceptualize if equally as difficult and daunting to implement. In Europe, there is increasing discussion of the need not only for operational independence but also independently produced military kit. Tellingly, Carney said that Canada, which has historically purchased military kit almost exclusively from the United States, had joined the European defense procurement coalition.
After Carney’s speech, Trump instantly validated his critique and the need for middle powers to develop spheres of independence. Carney reached a very limited trade deal with China. Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods. And then threatened a 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft and parts, supposedly in retaliation for Canada slow-walking regulatory approval of a U.S. produced airplane.
I don’t think Trump’s bully-boy foreign policy is what the people of the United States want. At some point, we will want to renew cooperative relations with fellow democracies.
But I do believe that Trump’s bully-boy foreign policy will have a lasting effect of weakening our position in the world. A country that can’t maintain harmonious relations with a neighbor as peaceful and cooperative as Canada is properly viewed with skepticism and treated with caution.
Reach Robb at robtrobb@gmail.com.