Biden and Haley Republicans
Biden needs to signal a course correction if he wants the 2024 election to be about Trump.
One of the most interesting, and potentially consequential, developments during the primary election season was the persistence of what are being called Haley Republicans. Despite Nikki Haley dropping out of the race, she continues to get in the range of 15% to 20% of the vote in GOP presidential primaries. In Arizona, she received 18%.
Now, Haley performed admirably during the primaries, becoming the last candidate left standing against Donald Trump. She became someone traditional conservatives and center-right voters were comfortable supporting.
However, this phenomenon isn’t really a pro-Haley statement. It’s an expression of deep dissatisfaction with Trump as the GOP standard-bearer. And not by right-leaning, marginal general election voters. But by voters committed enough to cast a protest vote in a GOP primary, knowing fully that was all it was.
These Haley Republicans will probably decide the outcome of the presidential election. Yet the Biden campaign seems to underestimate their importance and what needs to be done to secure their general election support.
According to reporting by The Dispatch, the Biden campaign plans to seek the support of the Haley Republicans under the radar, through micro-targeting, advocacy by surrogate Republicans, and grassroots contacts. The assumption seems to be that, at the end of the day, their antipathy to Trump will be enough, with enough encouragement, to cast a vote for Biden.
That’s a risky bet, one birthed by a conceit that pervades the Biden presidency and his campaign.
That conceit is that Biden’s policies are working; the American people are just slow to understand and appreciate that. No course correction is needed, just better communication and keeping a spotlight on what a louse Trump is.
I think there is a strong possibility that a course correction is required if Biden is to win over not only Haley Republicans but traditional independent swing voters as well.
The American people don’t think Biden’s policies are working. The polls reflect a judgment on his performance as president, and that judgment is harsh and getting steadily harsher.
Yet, on policy, all Biden is offering is a doubling down on the sharply progressive agenda he pursued and partially enacted in his first term. The American people aren’t looking for more of the same.
Bill Clinton’s first term offers a useful point of comparison. After being elected, Clinton swung for the fences with a complete government overhaul of the nation’s healthcare system, which became known as Hillary Care, since the effort was led by his wife. The American people responded with a sharp rebuke in the 1994 midterms, giving Republicans control of both chambers of Congress for the first time since the Eisenhower administration.
Clinton embarked on a course correction. For the rest of his tenure, he played small-ball liberalism, expanding the scope and reach of government through digestible, incremental measures. He overplayed it, famously, ludicrously, and meretriciously declaring that the era of big government was over. But he was reelected overwhelmingly in 1996, and left office with strong popular support and regard, despite his tawdry scandals.
Joe Biden wasn’t rebuked in the 2022 midterms. In fact, Democrats did better than expected, retaining control of the Senate and barely losing control in the House. But that was the lingering effect of the rejection of Trump and Trumpism, not an endorsement of the big-appetite progressive agenda Biden was pursuing.
The current polls are Biden’s rebuke and they reflect a settled judgment about his first-term performance that’s highly unlikely to change before November.
My guess is that Clinton’s small-ball liberalism would be an acceptable price for Haley Republicans to pay to avoid a return of Donald Trump to the White House. It almost certainly would be an acceptable price for independent swing voters.
However, a doubling-down on the big-appetite progressivism of Biden’s first term is a lot to ask Haley Republicans to swallow to avoid a Trump second term. And it’s not reassuring to independent swing voters dissatisfied with Biden’s first term.
Micro-targeting, grassroots contacts, and underscoring Trump’s loathsomeness won’t make the swallowing any easier. They may need to hear from the man himself a public commitment that the second term would be different and more modest.
This doesn’t need to take the form of a repudiation of the first-term agenda. There can be more subtle public indications of a more modest second-term agenda and an understanding that his first-term report card from the body politic ain’t that hot.
The Biden campaign is understandably concerned about leakage on the left to third-party candidates. But it’s hard to see how he wins without capturing a fair share of Haley Republicans and a large share of independent swing voters.
In 2020, it was enough just to not be Trump and pledge a return to political normalcy. But a return to political normalcy wasn’t what Biden delivered. Instead, he delivered an attempted, and to a considerable extent successful, ramrod of progressive policies.
In 2020, Biden could make Trump the issue. In 2024, he is the issue as well. If the 2024 election is a referendum on Biden’s first term, he will lose. If Biden wants to maximize the extent to which the 2024 election is a referendum on the prospects of a second Trump term, he needs to signal a course correction.
Reach Robb at robtrobb@gmail.com.